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Raw materials tension, production tension, delivery tension, choline chloride prices continue to climb

Author:Source:Visit:Time:2020-12-24 11:51:21

In the previous period (November 23) of choline chloride market information in the article, the author analyses that the synthetic analysis of raw materials, environmental situation, market demand and manufacturers mentality and so on various factors, the choline chloride product price before the Spring Festival strong recognition was the attitude of strong, do not rule out in the above various factors under the possibility of a significant upward.Less than a week after the article was pushed, at the end of November each choline factory successively raised the price or stopped the quotation, continuously raising the price of choline;Then ethylene oxide and trimethylamine and other raw materials prices have risen to support the cost;Under the interaction of multiple factors, the price of choline rises accordingly. As of today's press date, the price of choline has reached the highest level since this year, which undoubtedly once again confirms the professionalism and authority of Shandong Yinfeng in choline information service.

As the year 2020 approaches, what trend will the price of choline follow in the last month, whether it will usher in a temporary decline or continue to advance, will be analyzed in detail in this issue of information.

First of all, we pay attention to the raw material ethylene oxide. The main reference price of the domestic ethylene oxide market is 7500-7850 yuan/ton.As of December 3, CFR Northeast Asia quoted prices of us $985-995 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted prices of US $905-915 / ton, which has reached a new high this year, obviously supporting ethylene oxide.Affected by this, the domestic ethylene oxide profit is thin, the factory production enthusiasm is not high, the market bullish.In terms of installation, Sanjiang Chemical plans to suspend a 100,000 ton plant for 40 days.The China-South Korea Wuhan petrochemical plant is scheduled to start operation by the end of December.Although the early maintenance equipment has been resumed production, but due to environmental protection and demand into the seasonal low season, there is still a gap between the current output and the normal output.On the whole, the production and sales of ethylene oxide still maintain a tight situation with obvious regional differentiation. It is expected that ethylene oxide will continue to operate in a tight and stable manner in the short term. The possibility of manual price increase at the cost level is not excluded in some regions.

Trimethylamine, DMF as trimethylamine associated products sales, downstream follow-up wanes, lead to a price drop down again, combined with the increase of winter environmental audit strength, had a certain influence on manufacturers, many reasons lead to each manufacturer production load is reduced, and trimethylamine shipments is relatively reduced, inventories low, manufacturers limited strong appetite valuation.At present, the main factory transaction price of trimethylamine in Shandong region refers to 6,700-7,200 yuan/ton. Since the end of November, the market price of trimethylamine has risen by 300 yuan/ton successively, but under the joint promotion of trimethylamine production low, the demand of downstream bilia-alkali factory and other aspects, the price of trimethylamine is expected to have room to rise.

Close to the end of the year, heavy pollution, safe production has become a hot topic, shutdown, off-peak production began to spread to the country.Since November the beijing-tianjin-hebei and surrounding areas of nutrient-laden plain 2020 - comprehensive control of air pollution in the fall and winter of 2021 engines action plan (draft) "and" about printing in henan province in 2020 notice key industries of seasonal work production control plan and so on policy document released in succession, from mid November to March 31, 2021, building, chemical industry and coal, steel, such as pollution of 39 industry will usher in a new round of "shutdown" tide, shutdown will focus around the limit production measures.In addition to the emergency response in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and other regions, heavy pollution weather warnings have recently been reinstated in many places, limiting not only the production of enterprises but also the transport of vehicles.In order to prevent and control pollution, relevant restrictions have been issued in various regions. Some areas have been shut down before being treated, and even the entry of raw material vehicles has been banned, thus adding firewood to the already scarce supply of chemical industry.

Finally, talk about the industry mentality.The author has mentioned in the last article that the main reason for the rise in the price of choline this time is not the cost of raw materials, but the industry manufacturers in order to ensure profitability and improve the annual business performance of the initiative to raise prices.Throughout the trend of choline this year, the historical low of the price of choline appeared in early April when the epidemic just eased and in early August when the price of raw materials was low. There were a large number of lock orders from downstream customers, and then the raw materials rose successively, leading to a sharp decline in the overall profitability of the choline industry.Under the condition of unbalanced profits, all the choline factories.

In the buy up not to buy down the purchasing psychology, followed by a large number of inquiries and orders.The tight price of ethylene oxide for May and June was high, followed by the extreme shortage of trimethylamine in August and September and the extreme shortage of ethylene oxide in October. The continuous shortage of raw materials greatly delayed the delivery time of choline factories.With the group customers and a large number of downstream customers signing orders at the beginning of November, the delivery time is once again extended, just like the highway with tens of kilometers of traffic congestion, even if the front is restored, the backlog of vehicles behind will take a long time to clear.Through the relevant way to understand, some manufacturers have stopped signing, some constantly improve the quotation limited signed sheet, in order to alleviate the situation of tight delivery.At present, the factory price of 50% choline chloride is maintained at 4500-4800 yuan/ton, and that of 60% choline chloride is maintained at 5,000-5300 yuan/ton.Therefore, in the current situation of raw materials are still tense, manufacturers will continue to maintain the price mentality in the future for a period of time, the choline industry to enhance the efficiency of the ability to play a lift.

To sum up, the author believes that choline chloride will continue to operate at a high level in the near future, and both of the two main raw materials have room to rise, providing cost surface support for the price of choline.Manufacturers in the delivery tension is not effectively alleviated before the strong willingness to price.Influenced by various factors, choline prices continue to rise, perhaps in order to jointly embrace the hard-won flame in the cold winter, for the coming 2021 to welcome a good start.


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