In the last issue (August 28) of choline chloride market information article, the author judged that: recently choline chloride in the combination of the shortage of trimethylamine supply and the positive attitude of manufacturers price, will run with a strong situation, manufacturers delivery tension can not be effectively improved in the short term; The expected delivery remission time is around September 15. Considering the current limited supply of trimethylamine resources by choline manufacturers in China, there will be a large backlog of orders. Even after the remission of trimethylamine supply, the limited remission of order delivery will continue until the end of September. Since the article was pushed forward, the domestic supply of trimethylamine has been tightened in an all-round way, and it has maintained a high and firm trend. Driven by this, the price of choline chloride has only gone up and not gone down, leading to extreme supply strain of manufacturers, which has only eased a little in recent days. The market performance of choline chloride undoubtedly confirms the original prediction of the author. As each industry gold nine silver 10 traditional peak season arrival, together with the end of trimethylamine manufacturers overhaul, choline chloride is to continue to maintain the production and marketing of two flourishing, or more than before tends to flat, choline price and where to go, the following by the author to analyze and interpret for you.
At present, the price of ethylene oxide in China is temporarily stable, while ethylene in Asia is rising at the close. As of Last Friday (11th), CFR in Northeast Asia is quoted at $795-805 / ton, up $15 / ton.At present, the main reference price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market is 7200-7400 yuan/ton. As for the plant, the maintenance time of a 100,000 ton epoxy ethane unit of Sanjiang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been delayed by about 10 days, and the maintenance is scheduled from August 8 to September 20.New installations: Sinochem Quanzhou and Zhongke Zhanjiang are scheduled to go into operation in mid-to-late September. At present, the upstream northeast Asia ethylene market continues to rise, strengthening support for ethylene oxide cost surface, but the downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer trading enthusiasm weakened, the field is mostly holding a wait-and - see attitude, due to the operation of the mentality of differences, ethylene oxide price rumor failed. It is expected that ethylene oxide in the near future under the action of bad air, rising power significantly weakened, the market stability is the key to run. Sources said, before the end of September to maintain stability, the National Day after a slight rise, we wait and see, after the verification.
Trimethylamine, anyang nine days was due to start production maintenance plan on August 20 to September 10 or so to resume production, but as a result of trimethylamine is the main profit products, at the end of August and trimethylamine forcibly boot a week during the period of high price, to increase corporate profits, but the production facility of trimethylamine catalyst has come to have to change, then again on September 7, entered the stage of production maintenance, the maintenance cycle for 20 days or so, is expected to resume production at the end of September.Luxi chemical industry since the end of August after resuming production take for sales strategy, prices rose to 7850 yuan/ton, and hua lu hengsheng listing price 7200 yuan/ton, compared to the price difference is too big, lead to poor downstream follow-up, pressure from trading, luxi chemical since September 2, sinking clinch a deal the price, as of today (September 15) price 7000 yuan/ton;By trimethylamine power plant breed a methylamine, dimethylamine lucrative influence, China shandong hengsheng the end of August to greatly reduce the production load, trimethylamine supply only 5 to 6 car every day, until the recent production load showing modest, understands from relevant channels, China shandong hengsheng recently to export a ship overseas DMF (downstream products of dimethylamine), reducing the supply of trimethylamine again, slightly tight delivery.In general, the overall supply situation of trimethylamine is still tight, the price will maintain a stable running trend in the near future.
Finally, on the supply level of choline chloride, at present, the main task of all manufacturers is still to deliver the pre-order, the delivery situation is still very tight, but compared with the beginning of the month, with the recent trimethylamine supply tension slightly eased, the delivery capacity of choline chloride factory has been slightly improved. However, due to the large backlog of orders in the early stage, the rapid delivery of orders cannot be realized for a time. At present, various manufacturers deliver goods according to the urgency of customers, and the delivery tension is not expected to be effectively alleviated before the end of September. During this period, manufacturers still have a favorable price mentality.
Based on the above information, Shandong Yinfeng believes that choline chloride will be consolidated in a high level in the short term as the expectation of recent ethylene oxide rise falls to the ground, the supply tension of trimethylamine is slightly relieved and orders from choline chloride factories are delivered one after another. In the long term, with the resumption of supply of trimethylamine overhaul device at the end of September, choline chloride factory emergency orders have been delivered, choline chloride does not rule out the possibility of a small weak shock, specific need to further follow up the manufacturer's delivery schedule and upstream raw materials change.
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