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The supply of trimethylamine is extremely short. When will the delivery of choline chloride be relieved?

Author:MelissaSource:WeChat public account of shandong yinfengVisit:Time:2020-8-31 15:26:42


In the last issue (August 11) choline chloride market information article, the author judged: the current choline chloride in the upstream raw material price decline led by the bottom has entered the bottom period, basically in the last 10 years the lowest price range, and said that the current price of choline chloride almost no risk, encourage the majority of customers to buy boldly.After the article was pushed, the upstream raw material of choline chloride, ethylene oxide, rose successively on August 18, 21 and 25, with a total increase of 600 yuan/ton.Trimethylamine by manufacturer production maintenance, auction and factory production capacity to a higher profits varieties (methylamine dimethylamine) tilt, the influence of the market supply is sharply reduced, prices have jumped sharply, common cause methylamines factory production load reductions, delivery is extremely difficult, choline chloride price also "scaling new heights", under the drive up to a new height.

 



I have been looking forward to choline chloride as soon as possible out of the pre-dawn darkness, usher in the dawn.Now it was dawn, but the morning sun was really strong and dazzling, and there was even a sense of summer afternoon baking and burning.Can the raw material trimethylamine resume normal supply in the near future?Choline chloride industry can wait for a drizzle, to the whole nervous dryness of the industry to reduce the temperature, so that everyone tension of the nerves to relax?The following will be analyzed and interpreted by the author.

 


Ethylene oxide jumped on August 18, 21 and 25 with a total increase of $600 / ton.The upward momentum continued to come from tight supply in production and sales regions, as well as higher auction prices in the Northeast region, which helped propel ethylene oxide prices higher.Device in sanjiang chemical a set of August 8, 100000 tons of ethylene oxide equipment - on September 12, formal inspection, three sets of equipment maintenance is also a major driving force in east China, lead to tightening of regional resources, supply falls, and the downstream monomers increase, prices rise continuously, factory inventories low, the market atmosphere active form raise window.In the short term, ethylene oxide is supported by production and marketing, and its upward momentum is obvious.In the long run, as the overhaul device starts to operate, the supply shortage situation will gradually ease, need to pay attention to the factory information guidance.



In terms of trimethylamine, anyang 9-day trimethylamine device began to stop production for maintenance on August 20, and the maintenance time was 20-25 days. During this period, trimethylamine shipments were basically zero, and the overhaul is expected to be completed around September 15.On August 14, Luxi Chemical Stopped for a short time due to the modification of power supply equipment. Since its resumption of production on August 22, it adopted the method of bidding for sale, resulting in a sharp jump in the selling price of trimethyramine to 7,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of as much as 1,350 yuan/ton. Such a high price made all the choline factories in China turn away.More deadly is the nation's largest manufacturer of trimethylamine hua lu the hengsheng (trimethylamine capacity about domestic total capacity of up to 70% - 75%) recently lowered trimethylamine shipments, the main reason is that a combined relationship with trimethylamine methylamine, dimethylamine were buzzing earlier this year, the two products compared with trimethylamine to profitable, so in order to complete the annual profit target, China shandong hengsheng raised a production of methylamine, dimethylamine, greatly reduces the production load of trimethylamine, decrease trimethylamine shipments, structural gap in the market.

 


From the information we have learned at present, it is difficult to relieve the shortage of trimethylamine in the short term. It is expected that the maintenance of Anyang will be completed in the middle of September and the supply will be resumed, so the shortage of trimethylamine will be alleviated to some extent. In this way, the supply gap period is expected to continue for 15-20 days, and is expected to be alleviated around September 15.In addition, we have learned from relevant market personnel that after the end of September or National Day holiday, hualu heng-rise plans to start a trimethylamine large device production line, the production capacity is about 2 times of the current production capacity, then the supply side will be gradually ample, do not rule out the possibility of the price of trimethylamine has become loose.But until mid-September, there will still be a shortage of trimethylamine on the market, with little chance of relief.



At the beginning of August, under the joint action of raw material price increase expectation and bottom-hunting mentality, downstream customers of choline chloride were actively building storehouses and purchasing in large quantities. Mainstream choline chloride factories in the market signed a large number of orders, and it is estimated that it will take 1-2 months to complete the delivery of these orders.But make bricks without straw, at present in the case of a gap in the supply of trimethylamine, the chlorinated choline plant operating rate generally declined, the delivery of a large area of delay.Moreover, the more the manufacturer is tight in delivery, the more customers want to send the goods to the warehouse as soon as possible, thinking about warehousing for safety, causing a run on the limited production resources of choline chloride manufacturers, forming a vicious circle.Raw materials can not be obtained, goods can not be sent out, leading to the current manufacturers are holding a firm price mentality.

 


In summary, the current situation has been very clear: choline chloride in the recent supply shortage of trimethylamine and the positive attitude of the manufacturers of the price of the combined action, will operate with a high and firm situation, manufacturers of tight delivery situation can not be effectively improved in the short term.It is estimated that the delivery remission time will be around September 15. Considering the current limited supply of trimethylamine resources, choline manufacturers in China will cause a large backlog of orders. Even after the remission of trimethylamine supply, the effective remission of order delivery will continue until the end of September.We believe that prices will remain firm until the delivery of orders is effectively mitigated.In the long run, it should be early October before prices come down.



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