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Industry dynamics

Upstream raw materials are pulling up and manufacturers are shipping tight, choline chloride prices are firm against the market

Author:Source:Visit:Time:2020-5-14 16:03:43

In the last issue (April 21) of the choline chloride information article, Shandong Yinfeng held that: choline chloride will maintain a stable operation in the short term (before May 1), and it will be strongly shocked in the medium term The main operation is to see whether the rise of ethylene oxide around May 1 can be realized. At that time, it was even bolder to predict that the price of ethylene oxide, even if it did not rise before May Day, would have to be made up after the holiday. A week after the article was posted, the price of ethylene oxide generally increased on April 30, rising by 300 yuan / ton. After the May Day holiday, ethylene oxide is still in short supply, and the imbalance in production and sales is gradually becoming more prominent. On May 8, the ethylene oxide in North China was manually increased by 150 yuan / ton, and the implementation was 6,450 yuan / ton. Only two days later, on May 11, the price of ethylene oxide nationwide rose again, with an adjustment rate of 200 yuan / ton. The price of choline chloride was also driven by this and showed a trend of rising within a narrow range. ou ma ga! This is too accurate. The trend of ethylene oxide and choline chloride is almost completely interpreted according to the designed script. Is this the legendary god prediction! All colleagues praise and commend the authors for free, click on the blue word above to continue to follow the Yinfeng public account, and then repost today's article, praise is the biggest praise to the author! The weather is starting to heat up, and it's mid-May unconsciously. Presumably, customers with low choline positions have started to put the purchase plan on the agenda, so what is the recent trend of choline prices? This article will analyze each of the three levels of raw materials, market demand and manufacturers' mentality, and strive to provide some basic reference for your colleagues accurately.

First look at the raw material level. After the price of ethylene oxide rebounded from the bottom in mid-April and reached the bottom, after three consecutive small increases at the end of April and early May, the bottom has not only been further consolidated, but also added a firewall on the periphery. : The lowest price of 5800-5900 yuan / ton of ethylene oxide is a solid bottom. Colleagues should not have the illusion of falling ethylene oxide! Let's look at a set of public inspection information:

Taken together, the ethylene oxide manufacturers in North China and East China entered the overhaul period in May. The overhaul period for Tianjin Petrochemical and Zhongsha Petrochemical in North China was as long as two months. The increase of US $ 40 / ton increased, which actively supported the cost of ethylene oxide, and with the continuous resumption of downstream production after the epidemic, the consumption of ethylene oxide increased significantly from the previous month. Taken together, the overall bullish atmosphere in the recent ethylene oxide market is still strong, and the probability of a slight increase is very high. The expectation of achieving an increase within this week is very high.

The price increase of trimethylamine and ethylene oxide is yours to debut. On the first day after the May Day holiday, trimethylamine returned strongly with an increase of 200 yuan / ton. On May 11, it raised the price again by 200 yuan / ton. The current mainstream reference price in Shandong market is 6200-6400 yuan / ton. According to accurate information in the industry, Jiangshan Chemical, a trimethylamine manufacturer in the south, will permanently shut down the entire line. As a result of its delisting, the trimethylamine market will reduce the supply of 2,400 tons per month. The break of supply and demand balance will inevitably be transmitted to the market price. Coupled with a high level of coordination between several major manufacturers of trimethylamine, trimethylamine is also easy to rise and difficult to fall recently, and has the market basis and expectations for another rise.

Let's look at the market demand level. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since October last year, the number of capable sows has recovered continuously for 6 months. At the end of the first quarter of this year, compared with the end of last year, the number of live pigs in the country increased by more than 10 million heads, an increase of 3.5%. Good news.

With all domestic toll collections resumed on May 6, it marked a decisive victory in China's efforts to combat the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, and also marked the normal state of economic and social production and daily activities. Large and middle schools and primary and secondary schools all over the world have organized the resumption of classes, the school's canteen has opened fire, and the catering industry has gradually returned to normal. The author learned when visiting customers on a business trip that most of the hotel's customer base is gradually recovering, and is close to the business state before the epidemic. A few restaurants with good business still need to make an appointment to eat in advance. Taken together, the society ’s demand for meat, egg, and milk is gradually recovering. Although there is no retaliatory consumption predicted by experts, it is an indisputable fact that consumer demand rebounds and continues to recover, which will also stimulate livestock and poultry production and feed consumption. The growth of this will further promote the effective use of feed additives such as choline chloride.

Finally, let's pay attention to the mentality of choline chloride manufacturers under tight delivery. In the information article of the last issue, the authors analyzed that under the joint promotion of bottoming out mentality and rising raw materials, downstream customers of choline chloride are actively building warehouses and purchasing large quantities of goods, and mainstream choline chloride manufacturers on the market have received a large number of Orders, delivery of these orders is expected to take 2 months. At present, all choline manufacturers are still focusing on pre-delivery orders, and delivery is still very tight, which cannot be alleviated in a short time. At present, all manufacturers are holding prices. Again, once the raw materials have risen, choline manufacturers are inevitable in terms of cost and order execution.

Based on the above three levels of information, Shandong Yinfeng believes that choline chloride will still be mainly stable and strong in the near future. Driven by rising raw materials, the expected price curve will be multi-frequency narrow range upward.



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