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Three-dimensional deep analysis: the impact of the plunge in oil prices on the trend of choline chloride during the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic

Author:Source:Visit:Time:2020-3-25 15:47:35

Under the background of economic globalization, China's feed industry can not immune from the impact of the new global epidemic. The upstream raw materials are rising sharply, the consumer demand is low ,import and export are limited, all above have a big influence of feed industry .Then what will happen for choline chloride as the most widely used vitamin in feed in the context of the recent global outbreak and the collapse of oil prices ?We will analyze and interpret from the three dimensions of raw material supply, oil price and the global epidemic.

The first dimension analysis: the supply and price of raw materials for choline chloride basically restored , and the market price support for choline chloride was weakened .Nearly a period of time, liquid epoxy ethane, trimethylamine, hydrochloric acid supply stable, the price is more stable, currently epoxy ethane price is in 7600-7900 Yuan/Ton in domestic market, while market uncertainty remain, but in the short term, epoxy ethane’s  price will keep stable ;At present, trimethylamine manufacturers' production load release is limited, supply capacity is relatively tight, but supply and demand are in a balance. The price of trimethylamine is 5,600-5,700 Yuan/ton in Shandong market, which is mainly in stable operation .With the factories are back to work and transport are orderly, the supply of corn cob and ice husk powder in the production of choline chloride have a less of tension, even though the corn cob delivered price is 30 Yuan/tons higher than before, but has little influence on the cost of choline chloride .In general, the supply and price of raw materials for choline chloride have basically returned to the normal level, Don't have a significant effect on the price of choline chloride.

Second dimension analysis: the collapse will have a big influence of the price of crude oil and ethylene transmit to upstream raw material of choline chloride ethylene oxide .On March 9, after the "talks" between OPEC and other oil producers led by Russia the global financial market has a big shock, the price of crude oil futures plunged make a huge shock to the downstream products. The CFR northeast Asia ethylene fell $25 /ton to $670 /ton on March 10,then $635 - $645 /ton in three days later .Although ethylene oxide did not slide with ethylene, but the expansion of profit margins is obvious, according to CFR northeast Asia on March 13, 635-645 usd/ton and the price of ethylene oxide in east China 7600 Yuan/ton we know that the current profit of ethylene oxide is about 1788 Yuan/ton. Since March 12, there are rumors on the market that the price of epoxy ethane will fell 600 Yuan/ton, but the application for price reduction was not approved by the headquarters of petro-china, mainly considering the price fluctuations will have a big influence of market, lowering prices is not an effective method. Led by the price war of Saudi Arabia, Opec and other oil producer, the ethylene price may fall in the future, and although epoxy ethane with high profit but downstream terminal consumption ability is still very weak, price may go down at any time will have a big influence of choline chloride.

Third dimension analysis: theCOVID-19’  have a big influence of transport and export of choline chloride. 17:00 18th Beijing time total of 194,029 have been infected worldwide and 7,873 deaths have been confirmed, at least 41 countries are under a state of emergency. These countries had to resort to strict containment measures, and the method will inhibit Chinese export of choline chloride. China supplies 65-70% of the world (including China) choline, exports in 220-250 million tons a year, theCOVID-19’ in China basically under control but the prices (effect by customs clearance, transportation)will rise for the countries who import choline chloride, and China's domestic price of choline chloride will go down .Based on the above information and analysis, Shandong yinfeng believes that in the near future, the price of choline chloride will maintain a stable trend of operation, but have possibility of decline, we need to pay more attention to the price trend of ethylene oxide, the recovery of downstream terminal demand and the impact of theCOVID-19’  on the export of choline chloride.


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